In response to the question, "Which countries do you see as being global powers, today and in the future?" 38% of Indian people already currently rank their own nation. The USA was mentioned by 79% of Indian people as a world power, China by 33%, Great Britain also by 33% and Russia by 29%. This estimation however changes in relation to the year 2020. By then, 72% of those Indian people polled see their own country as being in a prominent position as a world power: clearly more than people in the USA (59%), China (39%) and Great Britain (31%).
In the other countries polled it was believed that the USA has lost a considerable amount of kudos. Subsequently only 61% of the population expected the USA still to be a world power in the future. That is 20 per cent less than today.
In most of the countries polled, people expected their own country to increase in significance: in China, Russia and Brazil for example. However, the positive self-evaluation in comparison to the estimation of potential competitors is more pronounced in India than any other country. This self-evaluation was not shared to the same extent by those people polled in other countries. Only 29% expect that India will play a leading role by the year 2020. India ranks in only the sixth position, behind the USA, China, Russia, the EU and Japan.
A rapid change has been detected in the last few years in the perception of global threats and challenges for the world powers. In contrast to 2005, awareness about environmental problems has increased intensely globally by over 10 percentage points, whereas in contrast no such increase in significance has been attached to international terrorism. The proportion of those who perceive climate change and environmental damage as a global threat increased in all countries polled, particularly strongly in the USA (+22 percentage points), in China (+17 percentage points) and in Japan (+16 percentage points). On average globally 54% of all people consider damage to the environment as the most crucial threat.
In contrast this awareness is not yet so intensely developed in India. Here only a minority of 28% consider the destruction of the environment and climate change as a global threat. For 75% of the Indian population international terrorism is by far the greatest danger. 65 % mention above all else poverty and over population and 47% state religious conflict and fundamentalism as further challenges. Fear of conflicts entailing religion in particular has increased by 18 percentage points in India in the past two years.
Summarizing the study, Josef Janning, Head of International Relations at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, noted, "People's future expectations hold enormous sway over policymaking. All over the world, people see the US losing its dominant position and China gaining ground. However, they don't expect the kind of harmonious, balanced world order you might expect from a global government run by the United Nations. Instead, in almost every country, people plan to rely on their own strength in global competition and want their own countries to play larger roles in spreading peace and stability.
If this perspective and expectation takes hold in global politics, we may see a resurgence of the sort of nationalistic brinkmanship between current and future global powers that we experienced so disastrously in 20th century Europe. However, the threat of climate change appears to be encouraging greater political cooperation at the international level."
