Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced monthly by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data, and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin. Dr. Curtin is Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,541 telephone interviews from February 1 to 4, and 15 to 17, 2008 (avoiding the Chinese New Year holidays). April 2007 survey results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More on the survey methodology can be found in the accompanying section.
The sharp stock market falls after mid January had caused significant losses to the investment returns on the part of the consumers, with a sharp month-on-month drop in cumulative 12-month investment returns only next to the drop seen in November 2007. However, consumer's expectations on the future of the stock market did not collapse in February. Instead, it rebounded slightly after a plunge posted the month before, suggesting sufficient confidence among average investors in the current stock index for a rebound.
As the government control on the real estate market deepened, overall consumer sentiment on house buying in the year ahead plunged in February, indicating a further decline on the part of the buyers.
Consumer sentiment in February failed to retain the rebounding trend shown in January and fell in all three major cities, with the largest drop occurring in Guangzhou. Sentiment among Beijing consumers plunged by 3.1 points to 96.3 to create a record low, with both current conditions and future expectations falling.
Sentiment among Shanghai consumers remained the lowest among the three major cities for the third month in a row, with a 1.9-point drop to reach 92.8, as an improvement in current conditions - which was the second rise in a row - failed to offset a drop in future expectations. The largest fall in consumer sentiment in February occurred in Guangzhou, with a 4.5-point plunge to reach 93.5. Again, both current conditions and future expectations declined, with all the five components constituting the overall consumer confidence index dropping.