1. China's mobile IM market will continue to grow fast. Because resources available to mobile phone users are not yet fully developed, there is notable user demand there. The number of mobile phone users has been growing stably. Many vendors including operators are optimistic about the future development of mobile IM. The year 2007 will become a year of full-scale growth for mobile IM. Growing cooperation between service providers will also facilitate this fast market growth.
2. Diversified services will be integrated into mobile IM products. Mobile IM is far from merely a communication tool. Users want to realize more Internet services. Because it is much more complicated to enter websites on mobile phones than on PCs, users very rarely access website-based services through their web addresses. At most, they store some websites in their mobile phone that they visit more often. The number of such websites is very small. Mobile IM products can fully allow users get more convenient Internet services. PICA has added blog, community and information services to its platform. In the future, this trend will be reflected on all products.
3. Mobile IM products will lead to a drastic increase in mobile data services. The integration of diversified services is bound to require diversified SPs to provide support, which will in turn push forward the overall growth of mobile data services. As operators gradually shift their focus of attention from voice services to data services, China's data services industry chain will gradually mature.
4. Terminal makers will become an important link in the industry chain. In the Internet IM field, IM products are based on operating systems (OS). In China, Microsoft basically dominates the PC OS market. As a result, PC terminal makers occupy a very low position in the IM industry chain. But the mobile IM field is different. Mobile IM products are based on mobile phone OS. Mobile phone operating systems are in the hands of many different mobile phone terminal makers. Consequently, mobile phone terminal makers have a notably higher position in the industry chain. As services providers promote their products, there will be a growing problem of compatibility between the mobile phone products and phones themselves. Mobile phone terminal makers will therefore come to the front stage of the mobile IM market.
5. The mobile IM market will overtake the Internet IM market. Currently in China, mobile phone users outnumber Internet users by almost 5 times. China's mobile Internet market has also gradually come onto a course of stabilized growth. Mobile phones now play a growing role in people's daily life. Mobile Internet-based value-added services have mushroomed. All this shows that mobile Internet services are more promising than the Internet, meaning that the mobile IM market has the potential to grow much faster than the Internet IM market. As operators increase their input and service providers continue to attach importance to user demand and experience and nurture users' habits of use with mobile IM products, the mobile IM market will have all the necessary conditions to overtake the Internet IM market.
6. There will be more Mobile IM applications in enterprises. Services providers should position themselves in the mobile IM market for the long term. Currently, some industries have expressed interest in mobile IM services showing that mobile IM possesses a competitive advantage to enterprise users. Mobile IM products are demand-oriented products. As enterprises gain a deepening understanding of mobile IM, mobile IM will surely enter a wide array of enterprise applications.
Market prospects look promising
As mobile IM products enter full commercial use in 2008 and as user numbers grow drastically, He Xiao, an analyst with CCID Consulting predicts that the mobile IM market will reach a growth peak in 2008, with its size expected to reach 3.85 billion Yuan. Following the fast growth in 2008, market growth will enter a period of adjustment in 2009 and slow down. Market size will then reach 7.04 billion Yuan. Benefiting from the adjustment in 2009, the market will once again enter a period of fast growth in 2010. It will gradually stabilize and mature in 2011.
