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Growth in China's GDP - 10.5%
added: 2008-05-12

China and the surging in commodity returns and our terms of trade, is what could power the Australian dollar close to the almost mythical parity level with the US dollar over the next few months.

China's recent strong export performance continued at high levels, but also again showed signs of slowing growth.

Overseas sales rose about 21.8% in April, compared to a year earlier, and down from the 30.6% annual rate in March.

The April rise compares to the 21.4% annual rate in the March quarter and the 26% rise in 2007.

The Ministry's figures show that imports increased by around 26% in April, compared to the same month of last year and March's 24.6% annual rate.

Inflation figures for April are due for release later today. They are expected to show another big rise, given the upward pressures from food and energy costs (and despite government controls).

Inflation has been running at more than 8% so far this year.

Official figures on Friday suggested that producer prices rose 8.1% last month, the fastest annual rate for three years and a sign that Chinese export prices will be pushed up.

The Yuan has been allowed 18% against the US dollar since being allowed a limited float nearly three years ago. That is driving up import volumes and lowering export values, but it should also be mitigating some of the higher cost of imports like coal and iron ore from Australia.

China's stockmarkets had the first loss in three weeks last week.

The CSI 300, which tracks stocks traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, fell 1.2% on Friday to be down 2% over the week, ending a two week rally sparked by moves by the central government to arrest the 50% fall in the market over the past seven to eight months.

Here's what the RBA said on Friday about the prospects for Asia and for commodity exports, in particular resources.

Growth in China's GDP was estimated to be 10.5% the year to the March quarter, down somewhat from the exceptionally rapid pace recorded in the past two years.

The slowing appears to be concentrated in the external sector, with growth in exports moderating and imports growth picking up.

The available indicators suggest that domestic demand growth remains strong; nominal spending on fixed-asset investment increased by 27% over the year to March and retail sales volumes are estimated to have grown by around 14% over the same period.

Growth in industrial production has recently been volatile due to severe weather that disrupted activity early this year, but appears to remain firm.

Growth remains solid elsewhere in the Asian region; preliminary estimates of GDP growth in the March quarter suggested a strong outcome for Singapore but a more moderate one for Korea.

Growth in industrial production and exports has picked up since the start of the year and has been broad-based across the region; industrial production in east Asia (excluding China) increased by 11% over the year to February and the value of exports grew by 19% over the same period.

While growth in exports to the United States and the other major developed economies has slowed, this has been more than offset by a pick-up in exports to other emerging economies, including China, Russia and the Middle East.


Source: ABN Newswire

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