Central Asia's large population, its almost non-existent fixed telecommunications, and its comparatively low mobile penetration all point to considerable growth potential for mobile operators in the region, notes Bakhyt Weeks, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. "We expect more than 26.5 million new subscriptions to be added in these markets between 2008 and 2013 - a 13 percent CAGR. This is roughly equal to, and potentially even higher than, the total net additions in the Central and Eastern European region during the same period," she says.
Revenue growth will lag subscriber growth as operators add more lower-income users, Weeks says. "However, in spite of the relatively low levels of personal income, total mobile services revenue will grow at an 8 percent CAGR in U.S. dollar terms, reaching US$4.6 billion in 2013, thanks to the massive increase in subscriptions."
Central Asia's potential as a growth area for mobile services has attracted large multinational operators such as MTS, VimpelCom, and TeliaSonera. "These operators have brought international experience, new services, lower prices, and technological innovation, and have in many cases introduced telecom services to previously untouched areas," says Weeks. "MegaFon and Tele2 are also eager to get a piece of this growing market, and this may drive even faster growth."
