sub-index of new export orders. With the large increase in April, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index picked up to 4.8 percent (a 9.9 percent annual rate), from about 2.5 – 3.5 percent (about a 5.0 – 7.0 percent annual rate) since December last year. In
addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread in recent months.
The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, also increased again in April. Electricity production continued to make the largest positive contribution to the coincident economic index this month. With April’s gain, the coincident economic index grew by 6.2 percent (a 12.9 percent annual rate) in the six months ending in April 2010, moderating from 7.3 percent (a 15.2 percent annual rate) in
the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread as all components have advanced in recent months.
The Conference Board LEI for China increased sharply in the last two months, following more moderate growth since the middle of last year. Although the strength in the leading economic index has been widespread, floor space started has contributed a large proportion
of the gain in the index in both April and March. The Conference Board CEI for China has also remained on an upward trend, with very widespread strengths among its components. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that China’s economic expansion should continue and that growth in economic activity is likely to be stable in coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS
Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include total floor space started, the PMI supplier delivery index, total loans issued by financial institutions, and the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The consumer expectations index and the PMI new export order index declined in April.
With the increase of 1.7 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 147.1 (2004=100). This index increased 1.2 percent in March and increased 0.4 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, The Conference Board LEI for China increased 4.8 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include electricity production, retail sales of consumer goods, valueadded industrial production, manufacturing employment, and volume of passenger traffic.
With the increase of 1.2 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 182.1 (2004=100). This index increased 0.4 percent in March and increased 1.8 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, The Conference Board CEI for China
increased 6.2 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
