The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in August, and all components advanced. The coincident economic index increased by 5.9 percent (a 12.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through August 2010, slightly down from the gain of 6.8 percent (about a 14.0 percent annual rate)for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing in recent months.
The Conference Board LEI for China continued to increase in August. Its six-month growth rate, after slowing somewhat in the beginning of 2010, has picked up slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for China has been on an upward trend, and the strengths among its components have remained very widespread. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that China’s economic activity should continue expanding in the coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in August. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include Total loans issued by financial institutions, the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, and total floor space started. The (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, the PMI new export orders, and the consumer expectations index decreased in August.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in August, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 149.9 (2004=100). With data revisions, this index increased 0.8 percent in July and increased 1.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, The Conference Board LEI for China increased 4.4 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in August. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include retail sales of consumer goods, electricity production, value-added industrial production, manufacturing employment, and volume of passenger traffic.
With the increase of 1.0 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 190.2 (2004=100). This index increased 0.5 percent in July and increased 1.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, The Conference Board CEI for China increased 5.9 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
