The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.3 percent in February to 155.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 0.5 percent decline in December. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.

The Conference Board LEI for China increased in February, following a small gain in January. The (inverted) PMI manufacturing supplier delivery index contributed positively to the index for the first time in three months, while the consumer expectations index declined for the eighth consecutive month. Despite the gain in February, the six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index has slowed further, to 1.8 percent (a 3.7 percent annual rate) from August 2010 to February 2011, down from 4.5 percent (a 9.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread and the number of components rising over the last six months was equal to the number falling.

The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February. There were large downward revisions to the index for the past several months as actual data for manufacturing employment for the first quarter became available. Despite the increase in February, the six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index has also slowed – to 1.7 percent (a 3.3 percent annual rate) in the period through February 2011, sharply down from 7.0 percent (a 14.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nonetheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in the last six months.

The Conference Board LEI for China rose in both January and February, after declining in December last year. However, its six-month growth rate continued to slow and is now back to the same rate as in late 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for China has also continued to increase, but its six-month growth rate has fallen sharply as well. The short term trends in the composite indexes are still rising, albeit at a slower rate especially since December. Taken together, they suggest that economic activity will likely grow at a more moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in February. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor - include the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, and total loans issued by financial institutions. Total floor space started, PMI new export orders, and the consumer expectations index decreased in February.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 155.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and declined 0.5 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, The Conference Board LEI for China increased 1.8 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Three of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in February. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - include value-added of industrial production, retail sales of consumer goods, and volume of passenger traffic. Manufacturing employment and electricity production declined in February.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 197.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and declined 0.9 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, The Conference Board CEI for China increased 1.7 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).