• The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, increased sharply in November. Electricity production, manufacturing employment, and value-added industrial production all made large positive contributions to the index this month. With the gain in November, the six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index was 5.7 percent (an 11.6 percent annual rate) from May to November 2010, about the same rate as the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in the last six months.
• The Conference Board LEI for China continued its upward trend in November, and its sixmonth growth rate has picked up slightly in recent months compared to the first half of the year. Nonetheless, the consumer expectations index continues to decline through November. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for China also remains on an upward trend, and the strengths among its components continue to be very widespread. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economic expansion will continue in 2011.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in November. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include total floor space started, the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, total loans issued by financial institutions, the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, and the PMI new export orders. The consumer expectations index decreased in November.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in November, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 155.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in October and increased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, The Conference Board LEI for China increased 4.7 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in November. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include electricity production, manufacturing employment, value-added industrial production, and retail sales of consumer goods. Volume of passenger traffic declined in November.
With the increase of 1.1 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 197.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.8 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, The Conference Board CEI for China increased 5.7 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
