• The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in September. The coincident economic index increased by 6.1 percent (a 12.7 percent annual rate) from March to September 2010, about the same rate as the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing in the last six months.
• The Conference Board LEI for China continued its upward trend through September, with its six-month growth rate picking up slightly in recent months after having slowed somewhat in the beginning of 2010. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for China also remains on an upward trend, and the strengths among its components continue to be very widespread. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity should continue expanding in the coming months.
LEADING INDICATORS
Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in September. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index, the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, total loans issued by financial institutions, the PMI new export orders, and total floor space started. The consumer expectations index decreased in September.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in September, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 150.8 (2004=100). This index increased 0.7 percent in August and increased 0.8 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, The Conference Board LEI for China
increased 4.3 percent, and five of the six components advanced(diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Four of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in September. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include volume of passenger traffic, manufacturing employment, retail sales of consumer goods, and value-added industrial production. Electricity production declined in September.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 191.6 (2004=100). This index increased 1.0 percent in August and increased 0.5 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, The Conference Board CEI for China
increased 6.1 percent, and all five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
