The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.2 percent in April to 154.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in March and a 0.1 percent decline in February. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.

The Conference Board LEI for China increased slightly in April, and there were downward revisions to the index for the past several months as data for the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index became available. The weaknesses among the leading indicators were slightly more widespread than the strengths this month. Despite the small gain in April, the six-month change in the leading economic index turned negative – to -0.1 percent (a -0.1 percent annual rate) between October 2010 and April 2011, substantially below the increase of 5.2 percent (a 10.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have become balanced, with the number of components rising just equal to the number falling in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for China, a measure of current economic activity, increased sharply in April. All components advanced this month. Despite the increase in April, the six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index has moderated to 3.3 percent (a 6.8 percent annual rate) in the period through April 2011, down from 5.1 percent (a 10.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nonetheless, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.

The Conference Board LEI for China increased in both March and April, after staying essentially flat from December through February. Despite these gains, the LEI is lower than its level six months ago (its six-month growth rate has turned slightly negative for the first time since 1994). In the meantime, The Conference Board CEI for China also continued to increase in April, but its six-month growth rate has moderated from last year as well. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components so far suggests that economic expansion will continue, albeit at a more moderate pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for China increased in April. The positive contributors to the index include total loans issued by financial institutions and total floor space started. The consumer expectations index, the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, PMI new export order, and the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index declined in April.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in April, The Conference Board LEI for China now stands at 154.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in March and declined 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, The Conference Board LEI for China decreased 0.1 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

All five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for China increased in April. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include volume of passenger traffic, manufacturing employment, retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial production, and electricity production.

With the increase of 1.3 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for China now stands at 201.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.3 percent in March and increased 0.6 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, The Conference Board CEI for China increased 3.3 percent, and four of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).